الفهرس 
River Management
The Study Area Description and Data SourcesOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
Abstract
Understanding and modelling the complex nature of river systems are essential for efficient use of the water resources. The Nile River was modelled to play an important role in solving conflicts by means of understanding problems and cooperation options. Many water allocation and operation models are used to study and produce some scenarios to support the cooperation among the basin countries. RiverWare software is one of the most recently used models for studying the reservoirs operation management.
The developed water allocation model called Eastern Nile Model (ENM) using RiverWare software, has proved its worth application. The effective use of Riverware tools in ENM requires the updating of hydrological conditions, but the hydrological data in ENM ceased in 2002, casting doubt on the possibility of using it for recent periods. In this study, the hydrological conditions in the model were updated from 2003 to 2014 with a simulated flow data, which were taken from the output of rainfall-runoff distributed model (Nile Forecast System (NFS)). The ENM evaluation was performed by comparing the simulated outflows with the observed ones at the locations of Diem, Khartoum and Dongola stations using various statistical criteria. All metrics were considered very good or good.
In this research, the updated ENM was used to simulate the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) during the period (2017-2060) for three scenarios and 115 ensembles of hydrological flow data with six years filling period. The results declare that the harm from GERD reservoir especially in the filling phase is catastrophic that could cause drought in Egypt. For instance, the probability of having inflow entering the High Aswan Dam (HAD) less than 55.5 BCM would reach 70% and the probability of having shortages during the filling period bigger than 30 BCM reaches 8.7%.
This dissertation used the updated ENM to simulate the filling and operation of the new proposed dams in Ethiopia (Mandaya, Beko Abo and Karadodi) during the period (2019-2060). The ENM simulation was accomplished for two scenarios of new developments and 115 ensembles of hydrological flow data. The results show the harm from the new proposed dams especially in the filling phase is enormous. For example, the probability of decreasing the HAD inflow less than 55.5 BCM reaches 27% and 34% with 2-Dams and 3-Dams scenarios respectively and the maximum shortage reaches 22.5 and 25.6 BCM with 2-Dams and 3-Dams scenarios respectively.
Three alternatives of GERD filling strategies were proposed to minimize impacts on Egypt; alternative 1 (GERD 625m), alternative 2 (Fixed annual release 35 BCM) and alternative 3 (Safe HAD 160m). Then, an optimal alternative (Third alternative) was chosen in the benefit of Egypt without affecting the Ethiopian benefit.
In short, a vast Ethiopian dam network threatens to obstruct the current river flow and regulate it through an array of gateways and turbines in a manner that suits Ethiopia’s purposes only at the expense of its neighbours and partners in the Nile River Basin. Consequently, the harm from the GERD and the new proposed dams especially in the filling phase, where all sectors depend on water will be under risk, is enormous that could cause drought in Egypt with high probabilities. Moreover, the harm from GERD reservoir on Egypt is much higher than the other new proposed dams.
Finally, this thesis introduces a well-designed operation-policy modelling framework that provides sufficient accuracy, transparency, and flexibility for stakeholders. This enables decision makers to develop and test innovative solutions and explore the trade-offs and benefits of compromise