الفهرس 
Competitive Bidding ProcedureOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
Determining the optimum markup which maximizes the expected profit and total bid
price of any construction project is considered one of the complex decisions that
contractors face in practical life. Although the total cost can be systematically estimated
by studying the surrounded market and its updated prices and also it is substantially
similar among competitors, deciding on the optimum markup remains the main
challenge that faces many contractors. One of the most crucial factors that affect
markup decisions is the prevailing situation of low, mid or high-market construction
that reflects the number of projects demanded by the relevant market. Accordingly,
development of a model that could assist in determining reliable estimates of markup
ratios addressing the evolving market situations is the goal of most contractors and
researchers. This study adopts Bayesian statistics approach to deliver reliable estimates
of markup via drawing on available historical data of previous real-world projects of
competitors and the corresponding observations of market demand to address dynamic
decision of bidding markup. For comparative purposes and to demonstrate the
effectiveness of addressing observations of market demand, the proposed model
provides markup estimates based on prior beliefs on the one hand and those based on
enhanced posterior beliefs; after incorporating effect of construction-market demand,
on the other. Real data of 45 projects offered by General Authority for Educational
Buildings (Fayoum Governorate, Egypt) are utilized to test the developed model and
turn it into a practical tool to be used in making decisions of optimum markup. Data of
other five projects offered by the same authority and contested by the same competitors
are new inputs to evaluate and validate the developed model. The findings reveal that
the model enables deep insights into estimating construction bidding markup, by
addressing the dynamics of the various identified prevailing situation of low, mid or
high-market construction.