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Abstract “(1) I’m meeting a retired Israeli general at a Tel Aviv hotel. / (2)As I take my seat, he begins the conversation with: “Well, everything we thought for the last 30 years is no longer relevant.” (3) That pretty much sums up the disorienting sense of shock and awe that the popular uprising in Egypt has inflicted on the psyche of Israel’s establishment. / (4) The peace treaty with a stable Egypt was the unspoken foundation for every geopolitical and economic policy in Israel for the last 35 years, and now it’s gone. / (5) It’s as if Americans suddenly woke up and found both Mexico and Canada plunged into turmoil on the same day. (6) “Everything that once anchored our world is now unmoored,” remarked Mark Heller, / (7) a Tel Aviv University strategist. / (8) “And it is happening right at a moment when nuclearization of the region hangs in the air.” (9) This is a perilous time for Israel, / (10) and its anxiety is understandable. / (11) But I fear Israel could make its situation even more perilous if it succumbs to the argument one hears from a number of senior Israeli officials today that the events in Egypt prove that Israel can’t make a lasting peace with the Palestinians. / (12) It’s wrong and dangerous. (13) To be sure, Hosni Mubarak, / (14) Israel’s longtime ally, / (15) deserves all the wrath being directed at him. / (16) The best time to make any big, hard decision is when you are at your maximum strength. / (17) You’ll always think and act more clearly. / (18) For the last 20 years, President Mubarak has had all the leverage he could ever want to truly reform Egypt’s economy and build a moderate, legitimate political center to fill the void between his authoritarian state and the Muslim Brotherhood. / (19) But Mubarak deliberately maintained the political vacuum between himself and the Islamists so that he could always tell the world, “It’s either me or them.” / (20) Now he is trying to reform in a panic with no leverage. / (21) Too late. (22) But Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu of Israel is in danger of becoming the Mubarak of the peace process. / (23)Israel has never had more leverage vis-à-vis the Palestinians and never had more responsible Palestinian partners. / (24) But Netanyahu has found every excuse for not putting a peace plan on the table. / (25) The Americans know it. / (26) And thanks to the nasty job that Qatar’s Al Jazeera TV just did in releasing out of context all the Palestinian concessions — to embarrass the Palestinian leadership — / (27) it’s now obvious to all how far the Palestinians have come. (28) No, I do not know if this Palestinian leadership has the fortitude to close a deal. / (29) But I do know this: Israel has an overwhelming interest in going the extra mile to test them. |