الفهرس 
مقدمهيوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
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المستخلص
Summary
The poultry industry is one of the most important food industries, which supplies the Egyptian citizen with the animal protein needed to build his body, This industry produces white meat and eggs, These products are with high nutritional value because they contain essential amino acids needed to build the body, also they contain balanced proportions of fat and minerals. These products are cheap compared to red meat, which are increasing their prices down so low-income people are replacing red meat, white meat and eggs in order to get animal protien to reach to the extent necessary for the prevention of human life. Broiler production considers one of the most important episodes of the poultry industry, to the great importance for many consumers.
Previous studies have shown the presence of a large deficit in animal protein in general and the inability of the protein, poultry in particular, and in spite of the importance of the sector poultry in the provision of 4/3 million tons of white meat per year and this extends the Egyptian citizen with 4.3 grams of animal protein per day but this sector is facing many problems, which resulted in a deficit in the average per capita Egyptian animal protein in Egypt about 19 g protein / day in 2009 the limit preventive necessary for the growth of the body, which amounted to 33-40 g protein / day, and returns the importance of this study possibility to identify the factors affecting the Broiler production in Egypt with the activation of positive factors, and develop solutions and address the negative factors, and thus can improve the efficiency of the level of economic performance and the advancement of the actual size of Broiler farms .
The study contains four sections in addition to the fore the problem of the study thate includes the objective of the study, the way of researching, sources for obtaining data, the summary in Arabic and English, and Finally the recommendations for the message.
The study used descriptive statistics to assess and explain the phenomena of sector of poultry production various private sector Boilers in Egypt and the Sharkia Government as a sample for the study, were used methodology descriptive analysis at the representation of economic relations between views the subject of study, the study used my way of simple and multiple regression to analyze the function of productivity in its image double logarithmic and in accordance with the proposed production capacity, and use the analysis of variance of the quantity of the various production elements. Were also analyzed in this study, production costs in its quadratic in the short term. Study of national consumption individual animal protein, and white meat during the period (1995 - 2009) shows that per capita consumption of animal protein in Egypt - as in the Data Table (3) Appendix - down from 20.8 g protein / day in 1995 of the total animal production and about 3.7 g protein / day of white meat by 17.8% of the total amount consumed per capita animal protein a day, to about 19 g protein / day in 2009 by 22.6% of the total amount consumed per capita animal protein per day, with an average period was estimated at 20.2 gm protein / day of total production of animal protein and 4.3 g / day, 24.3% of the total livestock production . Data Table (2) Annex shows that national consumption of chicken meat in the Arab Republic of Egypt increased during the period (1995-2009) of 336 thousand tons in 1995 by 83.8% of the total national consumption of white meat to 484 thousand tons in 2009 increased by 77.2 % of the total national consumption of white meat with an average period of 509.9 thousand tons, and also increased the per capita consumption of chicken meat during the same period from 5.7 kg / year by 1995, to 6.3 kg / year in 2009 with an average period of about 7.6 kg / year.
This study focuses on the study of the evolution of the main rings of the poultry industry in Egypt, and focused on the development of industry Broiler and knowledge of their relative importance in the governorates of Egypt during the period from (1995 - 2009) and showed idle capacities in chicken fattening during the period, and studies how to increase the white meat, and therefore studies the possibility of increasing the actual production of white meat (chicken meat).
This study also examines the situation, the consumer of meat chickens in Egypt during the period from (1995 - 2009) studies the role of chicken meat in bridging the gap protein in Egypt, studies the demand for chicken meat in Egypt during the period and clarifies the most important determinants, the study uses the regression model logarithmic multi-analysis demand for chicken meat, and found that the most important determinants of the demand for chicken meat in Egypt during the period from (1995 - 2009) is the quantity produced of it in thousand tons, and the average number of people per thousand inhabitants, and the average annual per capita income in pounds, the average price per ton of each of the chicken meat and meat pound red fish. By studying Alnozj logarithmic multiple demand function it shows a positive relationship between the quantity available for consumption of white meat in thousand tons in Musrkhalal period from (1995 - 2009) and between each of the quantity of production of meat Broiler in thousand tons, the number of people per thousand inhabitants, the average annual per capita income in thousands pounds, the average consumer price of red meat in pounds / ton during the same period, average consumer price of fish in pounds / ton, this means that an increase in any of these variables or one of them leads to increase the quantity produced and thus increase the amount of demand for chicken meat. There is an inverse relationship between the amount of production of chicken meat in thousand tons and the consumer price of chicken meat in pounds / ton, this means that the lower prices of chicken meat lead to the increase of the quantity Therefore ,This consumed them and therefore increase the amount of demand for chicken meat, and this is consistent with economic logic. Coefficient of determination of the equation was about 0.98, and P-value calculated was 72.2.
A Study of the price , income and flexibility elasticity of the demand was found to be about 0.359, 0.744 and 0.044 Alyaltertab.
Study the expected demand for chicken meat in 2025 in Egypt emerge production of chicken meat in the Arab Republic of Egypt in 2025 to about 1.2 million tons, and consumption in the same year up to 807 thousand tons, and this means that there is a surplus of an estimated 393 thousand tons, this requires opening Arab markets for the export of this surplus to.
In this study Sharkia Govarnment selected as a sample for the study and to their relative importance for the number of farms for Broilers in Sharkia governorate in 2009 as the number of farms maintaining about 18% of the total farms of Broilers production in Egypt . The province of East first place also among the governorates of the republic in 2009 in terms of number of wards working in chicken fattening farms wherein the percentage of the number of wards operating 16% of the total number of wards operating the Republic, and occupied the eastern province also ranked first among the provinces of the Republic of the actual production of broiler chickens, where the percentage of actual annual production of chickens to maintain about 19% of the Total actual production of chicken from Broiler farms in the Republic of Broilers production.
Selected a random sample of 175 farm by 5% of the total number of farms broiler to maintain, and divided the sample according to the actual production of these farms to four bites of the productivity of different: the capacity of the first, which contained the farms say their production actual (5000 chickens / session) was number of farms the sample in this capacity 64 farm, and amplitude II, which was the actual production (5000 to 10,000 chickens / session) and the number of farms the sample in this capacity 42 farm, and amplitude the third, which was the actual production (10,000 to 15,000 chickens / session) and the number of farms the sample in this capacity 35 farms, and the fourth volume, which increased the actual production (15000 hens / session) and the number of farms in the sample capacity of these 34 farms, This sample was distributed randomly into five administrative centers by 10% of the total number of farms broiler each center, and these centers are (Qamh, Zagazig and Belbeis and Abu Hammad, Derb star), to study and analyze the functions of production and production costs for these farms, a study of indicators of economic efficiency also by .
Functions productivity based on analysis of the relationship between the quantity produced of white meat (chicken) tons during the productive year 2009, and between the four elements of productivity is the amount of feed used to food the chickens during the production cycles during production, the total number of chicks purchased at the beginning of each session during the production, And the total number of hours worked during the year and the number of useful dead birds during the production year.
Logarithmic in the image of the production function using the method of multiple regression showed that :
* Production capacity of the first (less than 5000 chickens / session): the presence of three elements of productivity has a positive impact on the total production of Broiler farms fattening Badari sample studied, and these variables are the number of chicks purchased (Q 1 e) the amount of feed used (Q 2 e) and the number of working hours human (Q 3 e), which shows the existence of an opportunity to increase the amount used of these elements to increase production, and the negative sign preceding the regression coefficient on variable fourth which is the number of dead birds (Q 4 e) indicative of the existence of an inverse relationship between the number of dead birds and the quantity produced of white meat tons this is consistent with economic logic, and as much as the coefficient of determination for this image at about 0.94 in the sense that the changes that occur in the independent variables are responsible for 94% of changes in the total production of white meat in this capacity. The value of (P) towards 231.5 calculated, and estimated total production of these elasticities for this capacity is about 0.930 reflecting a declining return on capacity of production.
* In the production capacity of the second (5000 to 10,000 chickens / session): the existence of racist Antegean have a positive impact on the total production of white meat farms fattening Badari sample studied, and these variables are the number of chicks purchased (Q 1 e) and the amount of feed used (Q 2 e), and the reference negative prior to regression coefficient on variable second is the number of hours of human labor (Q 3 e) indicates of the presence of excess in the use of this variable is useful for the production of white meat, and the negative sign preceding the regression coefficient on variable fourth which is the number of dead birds (Q 4) indicative of a relationship inverse between the number of dead birds and the quantity produced of white meat in tons, with an estimated coefficient of determination for this image at about 0.87 and this means that the changes that occur to the independent variables are responsible by 87% for the changes that occur in the total production of white meat in this capacity. The value of (P) about 65,. , And estimated total production of these elasticities for this capacity is about 1.057 which reflects the increasing return on capacity of production.
* In the production capacity of the third (from 10,000 to 15,000 chickens / session): the presence of signal positive pre-regression coefficient private variables first and second, which is the number of chicks purchased and the amount of feed used, and also indicates the presence of signal is negative prior to regression coefficient private third variable is the number of hours of human labor and demonstrates that the existence of excessive use of this element, and the negative sign preceding the regression coefficient on variable fourth which is the number of dead birds (Q 4) indicative of the existence of an inverse relationship between the number of dead birds and the quantity produced of white meat in tons, with an estimated coefficient of determination for this image at about 0.98 This means that the changes that occur in the independent variables are responsible for 98% of the changes in the total physical production of white meat in this capacity. The value of (P) calculated to 682.9. The total estimated production elasticities in this way to this capacity by about 0.816 and reflect diminishing return on capacity of production.
* Production capacity of the fourth (15000 chickens and more / session) shows a racist Antegean have a positive impact on the total of the production of white meat farms fattening Badari sample studied, and these variables are the amount of feed used and the number of hours of human labor, and the negative sign preceding the regression coefficient on variable The first is the number of chicks purchased indicative of the presence of excess in the use of this variable is useful for the production of white meat, while the negative sign preceding the regression coefficient on variable fourth is the number of dead birds, which indicate the existence of an inverse relationship between the number of dead birds and the quantity produced of white meat in tons , estimated the coefficient of determination for this image at about 0.93 and this means that the changes that occur in the independent variables are responsible for 93% of the changes in the total production of white meat in this capacity. The value of (P) calculated about 94.5, and estimated total production of these elasticities for this capacity is about 0.023 reflecting a declining return on capacity of production.
A study of analysis of variance to the total amount of chicken meat produced from farms fattening Badari level capacities productivity of the four shows a significant difference of different levels of productivity where there are a difference in the quantity of produced meat between the capacities productive four-year production 2009, amounted to averages 30.37 0.6645, 124.37 and 367.35 tons during the year, respectively.
A study of the analysis of variance of the quantities of feed used during the production show a significant difference at different levels of probability by showing a difference in the number of chicks purchased during the year production between capacities productivity of the four, reaching averages about 21.2, 43.4, 73.8 and 196.8 A chick, respectively. For the amount of feed used during production, they are the results of her analysis of variance shows a difference in the amount of feed used between the four production capacities reaching some averages about 81.02, 171.36, 151.45 and787.83 tons, respectively. It was also found from the results of analysis of variance to the total number of hours worked during the production cycle and significant differences at different levels and reached averages about 2.2, 5.1, 8.5 and 8.9 thousand hours during production, respectively. As well as the study found the results of the variance of the total number of dead during the production cycle in the different productive capacities and the existence of significant differences at different levels and reached averages about 1.1. 2.3, 3.6 and 9.4 A chick , respectively.
Study the cost functions for the production of white meat (Broiler) in various forms of capacity The Quadratic productivity function in the short term shows that the image of the quadratic cost functions of the best images that have been studied and because they are appropriate to the circumstances of images of poultry production. Study is squared for the functions production costs in the short term on farms in fattening chickens in the study sample with respect to capacity production of the four, showing evidence of moral statistics obtained in the picture listed for the bites of the four, the total coefficient of determination of the capacities of the four about 0.82, 0.71, 0.93 and 0.99, respectively, and this indicates that changes in the productivity of every capacity have been interpreted about 82%, 71%, 93% and 99% of the change in production costs for the four capacities, respectively.
And calculates the optimal size of production found that it amounted to about 26.9, 41.4, 140.4 and 540.3 ton in the capacities of the four, respectively, and therefore it is necessary to produce 17.6, 25.6, 79.4 and 276.8 thousand chickens in the capacities of the four, respectively, in order to gain access to production optimization, which gives the lowest production costs, and calculate the economic size of production in the capacities of the four found that it amounted to about 105, 134.3, 275.4 0.7103 tons, respectively, that is, it must be the production of about 69.83, 155.7 and 3638.7 thousand chickens in the capacities of the four, respectively, so as to get the greatest return on economic.